I think you should apply to some other schools in addition to those already in your list. You might get into some of them, but is probably wise to apply to some safety schools. If you like materials physics, I think you should apply to Arizona State: they have a strong program but are not yet very very selective.
Take a look at the list here: http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~jnewton/nrc_r ... rea33.html
Try to apply to two or three other schools that you like and that you feel pretty sure about getting in. Based on the info you are providing, I would say top 40 is probably too much, but you know that admissions is not an exact science (well, not even a science) so somebody in the committee might like you and you are in... if you have the money, you should apply to those programs as well.