Just want to add that you should remember / take note that the profiles here represent only a small fraction of actual applicants. In addition, this small fraction tends to be biased towards people with the best GPA/GREs/research experience. So, I wouldn't try to infer too much from information that isn't there -- that is, if you see a profile similar to yours, then it could be pretty useful. But if you only see better profiles getting into the schools you want, and you don't see profiles like yours getting rejected, then that doesn't mean you won't get in -- there could be people at your level getting in but not posting here. Also, the applicant pool will vary from year to year, so it's still hard to predict.
Also remember that although the best students will probably get into every school, they can only actually attend one!
Just for fun....in the practice GRE test book, the table of raw score to scaled score says "based on performance of 14,395 examinees who took the test between July 1 2007 and June 30 2010", which means an average of ~4800 people per year. Let's say half of these people are actually applying to grad programs in your field in the same year as you (the other half could be in, say astronomy or repeat test takers). So, 2,400 students internationally are applying. HappyQuark posted his data on # of applicants per school (see: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4661&p=41715#p41715
) and his fitted function for # applicants vs. rank is posted there. I integrated (on Wolfram Alpha):
Code: Select all
integrate 567.46*exp(-0.0204x) from x = 1 to 150
and the result is ~25,000. So if a person applies, on average, to ~10 schools, the numbers kind of agree!
I actually don't know how many spots are open at each top 10 school....maybe ~20 spots per school on average? (a quick check at one school, MIT Physics, says they take 30-40 people). But with a conservative 20 spots/school, this is 200 spots distributed in the top 10 programs, and maybe ~400 spots in the top 20 programs.
So getting into a top 10 program means you need to be in the top ~8% of applicants, ~16% for top 20 with these crude estimates. It's a not very high fraction, and you can't really find out how you rank internationally, but I found it at least comforting to know that you don't have to be like the best 1% to get in. So apply to many programs, there may be a ton of really good people out there, but each of them can only "take up" one spot!