I suggest you to think of a model Hamiltonian which is a function of future happiness, success and safety(basically these are generalized coordinates). Then you can possibly use ideas from renormalization group(cuz of long range interactions, or you can ask RG how this works) to solve your model Hamiltonian. After all, success is probabilistic, so you can not aviod the concepts of statistical mechanics and the methods therein to solve your partition function.
Such a study has shown that cond matter is by far the safest field compared to any other fields in physics.
Well, this is all i can say and think of.