I'm not sure if my response helps assuage your worries, but I really think you have a very strong shot at getting into any given school on your list. You have performed strongly on the PGRE; solid GPA; publication. Moreover, you're more mature as a Master's student, so you're more aware of your goals in PhD and what you wish to pursue, which I think would be a strong point in your SoP. I would personally say you have very good chances at Ann Arbor, Austin and Stony Brook. You'll probably get into at least one or two top-ten schools. Just out of curiosity, to whom are you applying at Ann Arbor? I would guess Aaron Pierce and Henriette Elvang?